Two weeks until the Wisconsin recall elections, and it's the first real test of Citizens United. Can boots on the ground overcome a the big money being spent on advertising?
With 13 days left before the recall election in Wisconsin, here's the latest from the campaign as compiled by John Nichols, Washington Correspondent of The Nation and author of Uprising: How Wisconsin Renewed the Politics of Protest, from Madison to Wall Street:
1. New Polling Suggests Closer Race.
- The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Poll that dropped Tuesday afternoon shows a much closer race than last week's polls suggested.
- Greenberg has Walker up 50-47, according to the poll, which was conducted for We Are Wisconsin.
- The critical number: Among independents, Barrett has a 50-44 lead over Walker. That advantage is growing.
- What's striking is that Barrett's approval ratings are significantly higher among independents than Walker's.
- There are other polls in the field. Democrats and Republicans acknowledge that their internal polls are close. Democrats say its a "dead heat," as the Greenberg poll suggests.
- That fits with the tenor of the race. Governor Walker got some very good poll numbers last week, but the samples on those polls trended very conservative. The sense from the campaigns is that they see a tight race -- despite the usual spin from all sides.
2. Early Voting Goes Huge
- Early Voting for the June 5 election is very high -- way ahead of early voting at this point for April Republican presidential primary or May recall primaries.
- The numbers are up around the state, in Democratic and Republican areas.
- What is significant for the Democrats is that the numbers have spiked in the Madison and Milwaukee areas -- where the voting was below expectations in May.
- In Madison, lines have extended out the door of the City Clerk's office.
- In Milwaukee, says Milwaukee Election Commission Executive Director Sue Edman: “It’s very high for the first day of early voting for any election. Generally it’s 10, 15, 20 people.”
- Edman told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that 457 voters filed absentee ballots with the commission Monday, quadrupling the early turnout for May’s recall primary and FAR EXCEEDING the typical general election.
3. Critics of Recall Target Family of "John Doe" Investigator
- After a shadowy group targets Janesville teachers who signed recall petitions, now another group is trying to make a big deal about the fact that an investigator in the John Doe probe into criminal corruption in Scott Walker's county-executive office and 2010 campaign.
- The Media Trackers group -- which is funded by out-of-state conservative interests -- has apparently staked out is the homes of public servants to monitor political sentiments. And they went to extremes with regard to chief investigator David Budde.
- But what they missed was that Budde, who did not sign the recall petition and is a very well-regarded professional, is married.
- His wife, a county employee who is in no way tied to the investigation, is reported to have put up the sign.
- Milwaukee County DA John Chisholm, who has led the John Doe investigation, says: "I do not regulate or control the constitutional freedoms of my employees' families in their private lives. They have the right, under state law, and in this case, county civil service rules, to express their political views."
- Unfortunately, the right-wing groups that have been attacking the recall are showing about as much regard for those rights as former Wisconsin Joe McCarthy was accused of displaying when a lawyer asked: "Have you no shame?"
4. Scott Walkers Slanders Critics of Voter ID Law
- The League of Women Voters, Common Cause and clean government groups across Wisconsin opposed the draconian Voter ID law developed by the American Legislative Exchange Council and Scott Walker's cronies in the state legislature.
- A judge has determined that it was unconstitutional. And the courts have stayed its implementation.
- Yet, Governor Walker now says: “I’ve always thought in this state, close elections, presidential elections, it means you probably have to win with at least 53 percent of the vote to account for fraud. One or two points, potentially... That’s enough to change the outcome of the election... Absolutely. I mean there’s no question why they went to court and fought [to undo] voter ID.”
- The Governor's statement is false on its face.
- Wisconsin has historically had a reputation for clean elections. When national Republicans -- at the behest of Karl Rove -- tried to gin up fears about voter fraud in 2004, 2006 and 2008, they turned up so little that the efforts drew laughs from serious observers of the process.
- In 2010, when the governor and his allies won key elections, the Republicans stopped complaining
- Now, however, the governor suggests that voter fraud is a huge problem -- and suggesting that close elections might be stolen.
- But his crudest claim is that the good government groups that opposed the 2011 Voter ID law -- and that have spearheaded legislative and legal challenged to it -- did so in order perpetuate voter fraud.
[Editor's Note: The Ed Show has featured extensive coverage of the worker revolt under Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Walker faces a recall election on June 5 against Democrat Tom Barrett, Mayor of Milwaukee. John Nichols, Washington Correspondent of The Nation, has reported on the situation in Wisconsin since Walker's union-busting campaign began shortly after he took office in January 2011. That reporting was compiled for his excellent book Uprising: How Wisconsin Renewed the Politics of Protest, from Madison to Wall Street. John has been a frequent guest on the Ed Show, and periodically he'll be sending us more notes on the Wisconsin recall campaign as we get closer to the June 5 vote.]
Leave a Comment:
Walker your lies are coming to an end. I can't wait to see the door hit you on the backside on the way out of office.
HEY There Walker = Tick-Tick-Tick-Tick-TICK-TICK-TICK-TICK !!! Ha Haaaa !!! "Its The FINAL Countdown" !!!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw == Europe = Final Countdown
All the latest Poll results
WeAskAmerica
5/23 - 5/23
1409 LV
Walker
54
Barrett
42
Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert
5/17 - 5/22
406 LV
50
45
Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D)
5/11 - 5/13
851 RV
49
45
Walker +4
Marquette University
5/9 - 5/12
600 LV
50
44
Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports
5/9 - 5/9
500 LV
50
45
Walker +5
Recall fatigue has set in and I am sick of it!!!!!! A Walker win bodes poorly for Obama in November!
If we can clean up Wisconsin and Scott Walker it will be a win, win......
TM, I sure hope we win, but I am not counting on it. Even as I type this, Romney is actually rising in the national polls. If Walker wins, we know we've been bought out, and it is a harbinger of things to come.
Bad things. If the will of the people can't win WI, with all that Walker has done, I am really scared for the union workers of this country.
See the next comment. That is what we are up against.
Without unions, there are no pensions and eventually no middle class. I lived in a right to work state. You have the right to work hard for little pay and no benefits and no retirement. A GOP dream, a worker's nightmare. My husband has always been a union member and is proud of it.
God, I hope we win. I can't bear to see them have a victory over the unions. It will be 1900 all over again.
Walker's sponsors left him no doubt,
They would buy this election in a rout...
That ticking you hear
Is his end drawing near
When Wisconsin people vote him out...
This has nothing to do with the amount of money spent, but if you want to start pointing fingers. Maybe if Barrett had a platform other than "I'm not Walker," he might be doing better. Maybe if the unions hadn't placed all their eggs into Falk's hopeless campaign, they might be doing better. Maybe if they realized Walker's changes are actually working, they might be doing better. Maybe if they didn't start a civil war against a Governor who was rightfully elected, they might be doing better. Maybe if they didn't waste millions of taxpayer dollars, they might be doing better. Maybe after this failed attempt you guys might wake up and join the rest of us fighting for a better Wisconsin, rather than wasting everyone's time crying because you didn't get what you want for Christmas, you might be doing better.
I stand with Scott Walker
Walker/Ryan 2016
You know what? For right now, NOT walker is good enough for me. There will be another election in 2014. But for now, Walker's lies, criminal cronies and utter contempt for anyone that isn't his doners is not the Wisconsin way.
Elected on the promises of JOBS, JOBS,JOBS. How's that working out for you ? How many jobs has the snake created ? You seriously need to get a political education and take a course in economics 101.
@wiscoforward- then you are not very educated
@Gabby - At least those donors have given that money under their own wishes, and not forced to contribute to political campaigns by the criminal crony unions you support.
@Denny - Umm.. 33,000+ jobs and still counting. Check the real numbers, not the 3% of business surveyed by the BLS bulls%@*, genius.
@cynrey44 - Maybe so, but at least I am a wealth creator, and not a wealth comsumer. Maybe you would be interested in a youtube video explaining why it sucks to be a republican.
And you liberals say Foxnews is biased. This crap is horrible.
:)
If you get your win, I am going to watch how sorry all of you will be in months and years to come. And it will be too late for you.
You'll wake up soon enough to who the damn criminals are. Your governor is one of them.
@ India LeCarre - Yeah, lower taxes and more job opportunities. Sounds like a real bummer to me. Remember though, republicans don't cry about it, we buck up and get back to it. So we don't need your sympathy, and you can keep your handouts.
This has nothing to do with the money spent? Are you on the planet Mars? You should change your name from "wiscoforward" to "wiscobackward" if you vote for walker and believe any of the crap he spews. You righties never cease to amaze me in how misinformed you are... Oh and the 33,000 jobs a total lie...But even if it was true where are the 250,000 he promised! April jobs lost 6,000...
@ Ifor1 - I'm not at all surprised that the election isn't even over and you are already pointing fingers at the republicans rather than owning up to the blame yourselves. I don't have to believe anything he "spews." I see the benefits first hand. I am a business and homeowner, and I can already see the sunlight at the end of the tunnel. So keep living in your own world, I'm out here owning up mine.
And name the union cronnies that force anybody to give to a campaign. I've belonged to unions. They give you a card to fill out. Don't want to donate, don't fill it out. Simple.
@larry74 - Where do unions get their money from, and more importantly, where do public unions get their money from? Wisconsin is a closed shop state. As a union member, you have no choice as to what the unions do with the money they take from you. That is how they force you to give to a campaign, weather or not you agree with it.
*whether
Larry
The unions takes your union dues and send them where they want without your knowledge or permission
Wiscoforward, #3.6 You don't have my sympathy. You have my contempt.
I don't remember offering you any handouts, either. You get nothing from me, nothing but contempt. And especially for #3.11. So low. So low.
Now, I am going out Goodnight, Larry and TM. Don't give an inch.
@ larry - washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2011/02/public-unions-force-taxpayers-fund-democrats/110857
@India LeCarre - cool, thanks.
5/15/2012 @ 1:59PM
Scott Walker Magically Turns Dismal Wisconsin Job Numbers Into A Pre-Election Miracle
So, just how is Walker about to turn Wisconsin's dismal job numbers from lemons to lemonade? (Note: See Update at the end of this article discussing the Governor's revisions out today, May 16th)
The Governor has simply decided to ignore the system used by the Department of Labor —and every other state in the nation —to measure job growth (or loss) and elected instead to go with a different set of numbers that makes things in Wisconsin look better.
if we were to go along with Walker's preferred metrics, despite their being completely out of synch with the remainder of the country, we simply end up "dancing around zero." While the Establishment Survey puts the numbers of jobs lost slightly below zero, the alternative survey preferred by the Walker people puts them just above zero. At the end of the day, we're talking about zero job growth—even under Walker's favored, if completely unorthodox, approach.
The numeric wizardry has not gone unnoticed by Governor Walker's opponent in the coming election, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett who said,""They brought in a fiction writer. They don't like their numbers. They're going to make up their own numbers."
Certainly, if there was, indeed, 23,300 new jobs created in 2011 rather than the loss that was reported, this is a good thing. However, Scott Walker ran on a very specific promise that he would create 250,000 new jobs during his term. Even by his own, more rosy numbers put out today—using a metric that is unusual, to say the least—he is very much "behind" on this promise. Coupled with the fact that he took this highly unusual path to this 'good news' (I certainly cannot recall anyone, anywhere and at anytime, jumping the gun on this report by reporting data a month and a half before the numbers are actually put out by DOL), it pretty much glows with an intent to divert people's thoughts as the election comes closer.
The question remains, if you are an unemployed individual in Wisconsin, do you really feel like your governor has succeeded in moving towards meeting his quarter million jobs goal by producing 23,000 jobs in his first year, when doing so is dramatically less than what was promised and still lagging the rest of the nation in getting people back to work?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/15/scott-walker-magically-turns-dismal-wisconsin-job-numbers-into-a-pre-election-miracle/
Walker and all republicans needs to be voted out of state and federal office.
Wow! They've even managed to privatize the space program now, what next? oh I know, social security right. And it will come a lot sooner than people think if unscrupulous politicians like Walker keep getting elected.
I don't call the space program "privatized". Who paid for it? NASA. Who pays for NASA? Tax payers. How is that private? I'd say it's just another party that costs tax payers more. After all, they are going to make a profit. NASA didn't.
NASA doesn't exist anymore. Not really it scaled down to virtual nonexistence so in this respect yes it has been privatized. Which frankly is not that big a deal we have pinnacle of human space exploration at this point there isn't going anymore than the moon at this point so there's not much more to do up there so at this point private industry should and can do the developing until they is some reason for space flight.
Don't give up Wisconsin. Don't trust the polls.
In New York when Mike Bloomberg stole his third term his strategy was to blanket the TV with his negative ads sliming his opponent and poll numbers hugely favoring Bloomberg that his team KNEW were wrong. At the same time his opponent gave up and the turnout was historically low.
Mike won, but by a hair. Clearly, if New Yorkers understood that the polls and ads weren't determinative, but Bogus, the result would have been different.
Don't give up Wisconsin. GOTV! GOTV.
If only...
Mike Bloomberg stole his third term
Stole?? like Bush stole from Gore and Bush stole from Kerry
You poor liberals.....Everybody is stealing from you.
Well how else does the party of nit wits, perverts and haters get into office? Pretty much like you jerry, no one takes the GOP word for anything more then spin twist and lie. It is the only thing the GOP runs on because they have no answers except tax cuts for the wealthy and borrow till the cows come home, deficits be damned.
I live in New York. Bloomberg didn't steal his third term. He bought it with political favors.
PaulaKing banned, flameout, lots of #1 attacks on their first day.
Folks, don't respond in kind.
Unions are good things for middle class people. We need more unions in America. At least one-half of our workers should belong to a union. Where there is a work place issue the union has to be strong both in the workplace and politically. The union movement helped build the middle class in America. Teachers without tenure can not become members of a community because they will be replaced once they get experience. Experienced teachers get paid more so school districts across the country will fire experienced teachers for young inexperienced teachers because the young inexperience teachers can be hired cheaper. Cheap wages are what this is all about nothing else matters to conservatives which is why they hate unions so desperately. With only about 11% of workers in a union, unions are no longer a major reason for inflation. Conservatives would have a man working for a dollar per day like the Irish laborers who dug the Erie Canal. The power of the corporate boss over the worker has never been greater in our living human memory. Until we get more union membership the middle class will continue to decline in this country. If you are a conservative that dislikes my supporting unions: You know what you can kiss and you know where you can go to burn. Defeat Governor Walker in June!
Rex in MN, Unions are so important to the middle class. I can't understand why these Republicans take this union busting stand. I guess the corporate lobbyists have greased their palms pretty well. It's never about the workers with them, but just profit, profit, profit. We always have to stand up for workers, always.
Having spent nearly 20 years in FL, a right to work state, I assure you, WI, you will not be happy with your win, if that criminal governor of yours is not recalled. He, along with Romney and Ryan, are about to plunge us back to the 1900's. They are planning draconian cuts to every safety net we've ever had.
They are lying to you. I repeat, they are LYING to you, WI!
And their candidate for president is the biggest liar I've ever seen run for office. Every time he opens his mouth, he lies.
http://www.randirhodes.com/pages/rrnews.html?feed=393046&article=9880240
Here we are: I wouldn't call this a failed presidency!
Better late than never, it seems that the DNC is helping now. Congratulations to Rebuild The Dream for assisting Wisconsin because they know how important this fight is for not only Wisconsin but also to the nation.
Let's get really "REAL" here.
The Republican Party is not interested in Wisconsin because they have some kind of abiding love for Scott Walker.
The reason Wisconsin is important to the GOP is because it is the testing ground for the plausibility that a state in the United States of America is really up for sale.
Wisconsin is where they ( the Republican Party and their owners),will learn from their mistakes for future reference as to the precise guide lines that they will need to follow in order to buy other states that are currently "controlled" by Republican Party majorities.
The interested buyers are a few 70 year old white billionaires, (and who ever their foreign partners might be).
They have all the money, and the all the "elected" politicians they need to eventually own America, and the surfs who occupy it... one state at a time.
Good luck Wisconsin, our thoughts and prayers and all the money we can spare are with you, our friends!
ksker, That is just what I've been saying. This state is a test. If they win this, the country is in big trouble.
Scott Walker's administration is targetted the teachers who signed the recall petitions against him and publishing that information and has created a form for which parents can opt there kids out of the classrooms of "radical teachers". Why are they radical you ask? Because they excersized there legal right as voters.
So if your a teacher and likely soon to be any government employee and you excersize your right in a way Scott Walker doesn't like prepare to be targetted by his administration.
Education is the sacrificial lamb for this administration.
Paula, great post. You are on point about unions.
Don't you mean you stoop in front of him?
Hey Paula, Too damn bad Walker isn't going to stand by you, as well.
One of those "union goons" you mention is my husband. He graduated college and served this country in the air force. He is one of the smartest men I've ever known.
Watch your mouth.
I'd say more, but would get banned.
Walker was just proven to have committed perjury at congressional hearing.....what else do Walker supporters need to understand that this man is a criminal? His criminal defense attorneys must be working overtime in order to stave off all of these investigations. Walker has gotten over $140,000 in salary as governor, but he has only worked about 1/3 of his time on State matters - the other 2/3 of his time has been spent raising money for his future political ambitions (delusional ambitions), and his criminal defense fund.... If you only worked 1/3 or your work week, you would get fired - Citizens of Wisconsin have every right to be firing his butt... He is a loser with a capital L..... college drop out - low GPA - This begs the question: why would anyone want someone who is less than average for their governor?
I live in WI, thus,I am bombarded by pro-Walker ads (I call him Walker of Mass Destruction). They focus on his job success in WI. I am laughing while writing that.. hee hee hee
I would like to know how his promise of 250,000 jobs... yet only getting 33,500 is acceptalbe and supposed to be regarded as a success, but President Obama's 400,000,000 jobs in all sectors is not enough??
When he started, we were loosing 750,000 jobs a month...
Really?
Though according to Steve Deaces, those who believe these facts are stupid!!
You have to be a Republican to understand it.
Ed should maybe go to bls.gov and see the numbers for him self.
Jobs have been growing under Walkers time in office.
Fact is the unemployment rate is going down.
And labor unions are not the back bone of this country, only 13% of the working population is in a union and 6% of them are government workers!!!!
So only 7% of the total private work force is in a union!!!!!!!!
Unions have been in declined for the past 60 years now. We just do not need them any more.
What a crock.
Go to bls.gov
as that is were I get my numbers.
I guess the very government you stand up for is now "crock"?
5/15/2012 @ 1:59PM
Scott Walker Magically Turns Dismal Wisconsin Job Numbers Into A Pre-Election Miracle
So, just how is Walker about to turn Wisconsin's dismal job numbers from lemons to lemonade?(Note: See Update at the end of this article discussing the Governor's revisions out today, May 16th)
The Governor has simply decided to ignore the system used by the Department of Labor —andevery other state in the nation —to measure job growth (or loss) and elected instead to go with a different set of numbers that makes things in Wisconsin look better.
if we were to go along with Walker's preferred metrics, despite their being completely out of synch with the remainder of the country, we simply end up "dancing around zero." While the Establishment Survey puts the numbers of jobs lost slightly below zero, the alternative survey preferred by the Walker people puts them just above zero. At the end of the day, we're talking about zero job growth—even under Walker's favored, if completely unorthodox, approach.
The numeric wizardry has not gone unnoticed by Governor Walker's opponent in the coming election, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett who said,""They brought in a fiction writer. They don't like their numbers. They're going to make up their own numbers."
Certainly, if there was, indeed, 23,300 new jobs created in 2011 rather than the loss that was reported, this is a good thing. However, Scott Walker ran on a very specific promise that he would create 250,000 new jobs during his term. Even by his own, more rosy numbers put out today—using a metric that is unusual, to say the least—he is very much "behind" on this promise. Coupled with the fact that he took this highly unusual path to this 'good news' (I certainly cannot recall anyone, anywhere and at anytime, jumping the gun on this report by reporting data a month and a half before the numbers are actually put out by DOL), it pretty much glows with an intent to divert people's thoughts as the election comes closer.
The question remains, if you are an unemployed individual in Wisconsin, do you really feel like your governor has succeeded in moving towards meeting his quarter million jobs goal by producing 23,000 jobs in his first year, when doing so is dramatically less than what was promised and still lagging the rest of the nation in getting people back to work?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/15/scott-walker-magically-turns-dismal-wisconsin-job-numbers-into-a-pre-election-miracle/